I've been in this stock long enough to know that it is slow to move on fundamental improvements in the underlying story, but that doesn't mean it isn't happening.
The Q1 result was much better than expected after the relatively weak H2 2020 result. While I don't expect the market to embrace a labour hire business during a pandemic/weaker macro environment, the Q1 result once again highlighted the proactiveness and skill of Ross and Chris in managing growth and costs in the core business and making reasonably priced acquisitions to grow and diversify earnings. (Its also important to note that the Q1 revenue performance was actually reasonable after adjusting for the 14th week impact).
While cashflow was impacted by higher working capital, this is a cost of doing business in the CCL business and as long as counterparty risk is OK its not a big issue and ASH can access factoring facilities if they need the cash.
Based on the Q1 run rate, ASH is cheap. P/E is 6-7x, EV/EBITDA is 3-3.5x, EV/EBIT is 3.7x-4.2x. Further, assuming broad continuation of current earnings trends, I'm conservatively expecting a FY dividend of 3cps+ (possibly 1.5cps at the half)
As mentioned previously, I consider PPE a useful peer, albeit PPE should be priced at a premium given its less cyclical healthcare focus and larger scale.
That said, if we assume that PPE should be priced at a 30% premium to ASH, then ASH should be valued at about 70 cents based on various valuation metrics, more than double today's value. ASH also remains well positioned to grow materially through organic growth and acquisitions given its strong balance sheet and I like the diversification provided by training growth (despite COVID ST impacts).
Given the healthy dividend, you don't even need much patience with this stock, as you continue to be well compensated for holding.
I also expect more small cap funds to get interested in this stock given alignment with the major shareholder, growth potential, increasing scale and no debt.
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ASH
ashley services group limited
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17.5¢

I've been in this stock long enough to know that it is slow to...
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Last
17.5¢ |
Change
0.005(2.94%) |
Mkt cap ! $25.19M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
17.5¢ | 17.5¢ | 17.5¢ | $727 | 4.157K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 149944 | 17.5¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
18.0¢ | 74936 | 2 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 149944 | 0.175 |
3 | 110881 | 0.170 |
6 | 328313 | 0.165 |
4 | 135842 | 0.160 |
1 | 90000 | 0.155 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.180 | 74936 | 2 |
0.185 | 28414 | 3 |
0.195 | 322721 | 3 |
0.200 | 109894 | 1 |
0.220 | 62215 | 1 |
Last trade - 09.59am 28/07/2025 (20 minute delay) ? |
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