All should read the annual and 1/4ly very carefully. It is, to me, the first clear indication that KPT is accepting that the SB port will probably not go ahead and positioning for (well at least lip service) various other uses for the KI timber industry rather than the inflexible position of take no prisoners, must have a panamax size port only at Smith Bay and must export.
annual p13 "Timing of approval at the discretion of Minister, SA Government". hmmm, so what do we know about the minister? ........D.Y.O.R.
annual p17 "Dry product - price point relatively low "
"Target markets: fuelwood, pellets, baseload power, spinoff products such as biochar" - sorry but these all require considerable expense for poor return.
annual p20 "NTA backing of $2.14 in 2020 annual report is real and productive." This is hype much above reality. Whilst probably this meets accountacy standards, those standards do not require value to be adjusted to reflect reality - ie reduced for the fact there is no road to market - no connection to a market and no market anywhere near where they stand so its the same it has been for 25 years - nice trees but no sale! Analogy: Nice ore find on the WA/SA/NT border and we can get $200/tonne. But to get to port we need to process, instal a road, and truck it - total F.O.B. expenses $220/tonne. Does anyone see a problem?
Back to KI. So whether the standing trees are prime(5%) toasted green or toasted dry they have NO income potential (without a $40m port). So, what is the Co worth now we have both the annual report and the latest 1/4ly?
land value (trees gone - or not will only net $1500/ha at best) so 1500/ha and 15,000ha = $22.5m - enticing!
from the 1/4ly: net cash $25.9m - better than a poke in the eye!
from the AGM: insurance to come (best) = $17.5m - will take that too.
TOTAL net tangible $65.9m and 56414515 shares = $1.17/share. So the market is "on the money" - funny that; how shareholders always argue the market is wrong.
So what are the directors getting from not liquidating? Director's fees circa $130k pa and performance rights (2,256,896 of them shared) and triggered at 1.35, 1.50 and 1.75 - hardly worth the effort!
And 'wot if' SB is approved - certainly a spike in shares good for holders to sell (its my spec reason for holding) but not much else as there will be too many conditions for the port to ever be constructed whilst Yumbah is in residence.
I wonder what Yumbah would sell out for now that we are all cashed up - well cashed up "a bit"
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