So we didn't get clarification on a lot of stuff at the AGM, but...

So we didn't get clarification on a lot of stuff at the AGM, but we did get clarification that Q1 that 53kt shipped.
Assuming a 33.1% grade per the PFS, Q1 was A$3.10/dmtu. We also got confirmation of no hedging, so spot rates for shifting USD to AUD are relevant. They look to be about 0.74 at the time the ships sailed, so revenue was a terrible US$2.30/dmtu. Pretty similar to values previously used in analysis around the quarter.

From Fastmarkets website for the product MB-MNO-0001, the price at 10-17 July would appear to be about $5.30 and for 28 Aug to 4 Sep it was about $5.16. This indicates that shipping costs and discounts to 44% pricing were cumulatively $2.93/dmtu. A Q1 shipping price around $56/t had been implied by a 45% discount in shipping prices taking them to low $30's/t, but the AGM now notes $56/t explicitly. $56*55%=$31. If Q1 shipping prices were $56/t then $1.69 of this gap is explained by shipping and grade based discounts are $1.24/dmtu. The majority of this is simply using a 44% grade price for a circa 33% product.

From Fastmarkets website, the 44% Mn price would now look to be about $5.55/dmtu (27 Nov), so this a good starting point for the current shipment. A 45% reduction on shipping at $56/t reduces shipping at US$31/t. This is still super-expensive at about US$0.94/dmtu, but it is what it is. Long-term there is the option of bigger ships (Could Capesize be used?), and rates should drop back to longer-term averages like US$18/t. With a $1.24 grade discount, cash receipts might be US$3.37/dmtu. If smelter credits are then around $0.55, this would increase to US$3.92/dmtu. This isn't $4.37 but is getting close and would align to past comments that pricing is approaching PFS (I haven't looked to adjust for shipping less than intended as this is hopefully a one-off).

If a large proportion of the $8.924m of Q2 costs were inefficient start-up production costs, long-run mining costs could still be on-track to be below US$3/dmtu. This would have the ore mining being a usefully profitable activity at current prices, although not quite at PFS levels. To get PFS profitability would appear to require either 44% pricing near US$6, or shipping costs to drop back so they take nearly a dollar/dmtu (and smelter credits occurring as modelled). Past E25 price charts put the 44% Mn price above US$6 about half the time, so its not a silly long-term average.