Thanks to those who provided AGM updates, always good to get a...

Thanks to those who provided AGM updates, always good to get a range of readings. Unfortunately, BSE can't know for sure when or what deal Madagascar will sign-off until it's formalised BSE been lobbying with IMF, world bank and even the US has put in a good word for us... great, I'm sure Madagascar got the message a long time ago.

Timely find @chispas, though nobody wants to touch it funny enough lol.

"The new text, an electoral promise of Andry Rajoelina, would significantly increase taxation in the sector in Madagascar. It is due to go through cabinet shortly, but is bitterly contested within the government and is likely to spark an outcry from the Chamber of Mines. [...] (535 words) Issue dated 24/11/2022 Reading time 3 minutes".

US$12.50 to read but no need imo. The headline says it all and sums up the Madagascar's desire and BSE's risk these last 3 years... more of the pie (plus probably some backsheesh if possible). No surprise this drawn-out negotiation was about a tax grab, only questions were how much Madagascar demanded, BSE would settle for or risk losing the lot, and how long to get there. I for one am glad to hear it's reaching a climax, no wonder Tim is racing back over, although in African time that may still mean many months away.

I held SFX though it's multiple failed JV funding efforts and have some knowledge through various pers comms of how second half of 2019 failed deal went down. There was a period of confidence with PE buyers out of London, then a period of being mucked around, then they stepped back... no deal. Toliara is different because BSE ostensibly 'owns' the rights to Toliara and neither party can walk-away without the mine remaining undeveloped. There is a requirement for all parties to make a win-win deal lest it ends up lose-lose.

Terms of the final Toliara deal are very material to both parties, understandably not to be waved through lightly. We also know RIO is in negotiations with Madagascar about a critical mine life extension permit for their Fort Dauphin min sand mine required by Jan/Feb 23. Every chance Madagascar doesn;t want to reveal their hand while trying to shake down RIO for more by signing up and revealing BSE specific royalty terms. Tactically, I would hold off BSE until RIO's deal is done. Show the country will stand its ground on principle until it gets 'what's fair'. Pretend they will get a better deal out of BSE than they really are to pressure RIO into accepting a bigger hit than they otherwise would if they saw what deal BSE actually does.

Personally, I think BSE has a fair bit to move from the old 2% royalty before the market spits the dummy. Tim has been confidently guiding 4% for a couple of years, say 5% was his aim. Snap, I'm in, same as we pay in Oz. Someone posted Tim saying they started off asking for 20% royalty, door hits my arse on the way out. 10% royalty and I'm out, royalties are a much bigger hit than free-carried ownership, as Madagascar found out with Rio other side of the island. Maybe it's 5% royalty with RIO in mind (who only pay 1-2% but did sell down 20% to the guv) and BSE is the first to sign up and help push Rio into a corner? Maybe it's a staggered royalty with higher rates on more profitable projects... ouch, hope Tim brings some lube. Nail biting stuff waiting to find out what the PM will push through cabinet, but at least it's unlikely to be an unworkable, binary outcome for BSE (he said nervously).

Regal makes me a bit nervous now i mention it. Regal sold 50M BSE from mid June to end Oct, an average of 12M per month. In November they sold 13M out of a total 26M shares traded in total until the 24th, ridiculous amount considering all the traders/investors/suckers who tried to catch this falling knife then quickly changed their minds and stopped back out. 25% of shares traded could easily be 'intermediaries' who bought off Regal, then on-sold to others which churns up the volume but isn;t real selling... Regal's doing all the selling is my point. Regal almost certainly responsible for the 5.5M shares sold since 24th, so they have unloaded >15M shares this month and counting.

Does that seem strange to you? Selling an average of 12M shares monthly when the price was above 30c and down to mid-20's, then ramping up the volume and speed of selling into the low-20s Why the late rush, why so much more selling at cheaper prices and is there a volume or price target they're aiming for? I follow min sands a bit, but only with fun money. Regal started with ~155M shares worth a cool A$46M @ 30c, enough money to bother really asking around what is going on with Madagascar, the President's plans, and maybe if an early exit is sensible. All sorts of consultants and politicians involved from the Madagascar side. Probably doens't hurt Madagascar's position either having the share price of the company with the most important deposit at the centre of negotiations getting smashed and piling more pressure on the board to accept a worse deal...

Whatever the terms, sooner the better please. At the rate Regal are selling, this downtrend will be under 20c by December and 15c by Xmas.

GLTAH