I enjoy playing with AI large language models, but as way shown with that it spat out for the SOM resource, they are often very off the mark, nevertheless I have input the AGM data into Claude for a valuation:
Based on the presentation data and current market conditions, I can attempt a rough sum-of-parts valuation. However, I should note that this is an approximation given the early stage of many projects and market uncertainties.
Star of Mangaroon Gold Project:
- Resource: 23,300oz @ 12.8g/t Au
- Simple NPV calculation assuming:
- Gold price: $3,000 AUD/oz
- Mining costs: $120/t
- Processing costs: $50/t
- Recovery: 95%
- Small open pit operation
- 2-year mine lifeEstimated NPV: $30-35M for current resource
Additional exploration upside: $15-20MTotal Project Value: $45-55M- Gifford Creek REE-Nb Project:
- Yin REE Deposit:
- 29.98Mt @ 1.04% TREO
- Using peer comparison metrics of $3-5/t of resourceEstimated Value: $90-150M
- C3 REE-Nb Deposit:
- 10.84Mt @ 1.0% TREO, 0.22% Nb2O5
- Higher value due to Nb contentEstimated Value: $40-60M
Other Projects (Strategic Value):
- Mangaroon Ni-Cu-PGE:
- Early stage but significant strike length
- JV potentialEstimated Value: $15-25M
- Bresnahan Project:
- Multiple commodities
- Early stageEstimated Value: $8-12M
- Tarraji-Yampi:
- Copper-gold discovery
- Strategic review underwayEstimated Value: $10-15M
- Central Yilgarn:
- Multiple commodities
- Advanced JV discussionsEstimated Value: $5-10M
Sum-of-Parts Valuation:
- Core Projects:
- Star of Mangaroon: $45-55M
- Gifford Creek Complex: $130-210M
- Secondary Projects: $38-62M
- Cash Position: $2.1M
- Enterprise Value Components:Gross Asset Value: $215-329MLess:
- Corporate costs
- Development capital requirements
- Dilution risk
- Market discount for early stage projects (40-50%)
Implied Company Value Range: $108-165M
Current Market Cap: $56.3M
(20min delay)