Some good info out of the AGM - my breakdown below
- Debt expected to by reduced from $653.9M down to between $550-$560M by end FY18 (6.27% INT = ~$35M)
- Supply is now approx 1/3 Long term PPA, 1/3 Commerial-Industrial Midterm contracts, 1/3 merchant
(this change brings more certainty to revenue and brings some validation to the new business approach)
-The new supply structure works off a 3-7 year period with a 5 year forward position
-The company states there's no intention for a CR in the foreseeable future
-IFN in discussion with several parties in regard to project finance and purchasing supply options (capital lite)
-FY18 pricing expected to be $133-139 Mwh (after factoring hedging costs for contract positions)
- Mentioned future dividend option from cashflow produced from Woodlawn and Bodangora
- If refinancing occurs they expect execution by March 31 2018. (albeit generous time frames the company did state they will have refinance info by end Sep, know whether to proceed by 31 Dec and if so it would flow into the new year)
-Management feel the current share price sentiment is primarily related to policy and government intervention risk (as expressed by some departing shareholders)
Summary:
As much as I would like to see the company refinance from currently 6.27% (average). (Tilt renewables currently has 3.5%). I believe as previously discussed the choice to lock in production as low prices (PPAs) as a condition to get a restructured loan is not in the interests of shareholders as the increased revenue enjoyed from current prices easily beats the interest savings and cashflow is rapidly paying down debt and the company is still able to progress projects.
The 1/3 supply to commerial and industrial users (notably Adelaide Brighton) derisks the business in my view as gives a better chance to refinancing. Prices remain strong out to 2019-2020 which should allow significant continued debt reduction.
Good luck to holders - Great to hear others opinions
WS
IFN Price at posting:
67.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
