The positives:1. FCF increased by $200 million over previous...

The positives:

1. FCF increased by $200 million over previous financial year
2. debt reduced by 9% compared to previous financial year
3. sale of South American business for $1.2 billion - this is a game changer which removes any lingering concerns about debt levels and leaves Nufarm with a very strong balance sheet. It also implies that the market is valuing the rest of Nufarm's business at less than $700 million which seems absurdly low to me
4. upside leverage to improved weather in Australia and restocking by customers in the US but it's a complete guess as to when this will happen
5. Omega 3 - but I want more clarity on both the financial benefits and the timing of commercial production

The negatives:

6. accounting lapses resulting in omission of $9 million in expenses from the FY2019 results which was quickly and openly addressed. It is critical for the company's credibility that this be an isolated event and, if it is, it is insignificant in the overall scheme of things
7. decline in health and safety standards which the board and management have, rightly, made a priority to address. A return to previous years' standards would be welcome
8. no dividends
9. lower earnings in Q1 FY2020 largely due to weather in Australia and North America and residual integration costs in Europe

What the "experts" say:

3x outperform ratings and 2x hold ratings (a sixth broker is restricted)
Consensus price target of $6.23 (range for $8.13 to $4.90
A consensus resumption of dividends in FY2020 of an anaemic 5.1 cps

As a long time observer of Nufarm (going back to the days when it was listed on NZX rather than ASX), NUF is a company that seems to go in cycles. It used to be regarded as an extremely well managed company which consistently delivered for shareholders. For the last several years the track record has been patchy and the returns to shareholders have been poor with the company underperforming and disappointing shareholders over a period of several years during a bull market. Part of this is due to the weather (which they don't control) but a long way short of all of the company's problems can be laid at the feet of Mother Nature.

That said, I like what the company is doing to control costs and the European expansion. Tthe potential for Omega 3 is exciting and another potential game changer. In the outer reaches of potential is the possibility of becoming a significant global player in the "non-meat" food movement. It would be more than a little delusional to make comparisons with ATM but ATM does illustrate the potential for a company which has the right product at the right time.

I think I need to see the company make some further progress in a number of areas before I increase my investment but I see the potential so i'll keep my modest shareholding and call it a hold for now.