Ann: Agreement to Deploy WEC at Cal Poly Research Pier California, page-2

i trade a lot ( of paper/cfd) indexes and metals etc.....rarely trade stocks.....one of the things i utilise, because liquidity is so thick in those instruments,  is a simple ratio series......i'm looking for equality of moves, not so much to get aggressive, rather, to define the risk....ratios tend toward areas of commonality, where one price accepted or rejected ......

ideas that work well in thick liquidity might not be suited to thinly traded stocks

so, i thought this interesting today;

that we had a news release in a particular spot that may have signalled the end of the retracement and while news itself may not initiate a healthy trend, we should keep in mind that within all measures ProteanWaveEnergy has been in an uptrend since early march of this year

and before you roll your eyes and think oh great another technical bit of guff, consider these points;

in trends news tends to fit the trend, traders will mostly use the news as an excuse to get in (uptrend) or get out at a higher price
so, how would that thinking at this .019 price point lend itself to ProteanWaveEnergy ?

Paul Tudor Jones with his infamous "Losers average losers" sign,
the question is, how to qualify a bargain-buy versus an averaged loser, there must be a series of
logical, if not empiric, ideas to lend proof that risk is both qualitative and quantitative

here's mine

in the chart you'll see i've notated  simple (down-up-down)
in black, an A x B x C where A = C at 100% (as a ratio it is 1:1)
meaning the first step down  is equal to the second step down
and
in blue, an (A)x(B)x(C) where (A) = (C) at 200% (as a  ratio it is 1:2)
how the 1:2 ratio is workable is just like the first one, with a small difference, obviously, as this one first made a new nominal price high (B) before price began to make the swing down to todays low...i wont go into how that (B) is itself a fake-out of sorts, in that, while there was a lot of enthusiasm for price to get higher (derr!) there was not ample enough buy-side trend belief so price needed to come back into the larger range and find a new base to lift from, from an area where value is thought to be too good to pass up
this is where price-trend belief meets sense of price value, given that we area long way from having workable fundamental earnings metrics to go off, future expectation and belief of the value of that expectation can be measured in hindsight and while i agree that hindsight is less than useful, we could still look for markers that say the probabilities stability transitioning to price ascention maybe measurable to the extent price keeps above the markets.....defining risk!

..the question is, how to qualify a bargain buy versus an averaged loser, how do we know there is now a low in place....we dont yet we can summise the risk involved ...there must be a series of
logical, if not empiric, ideas that while not back-testable as the stock in it's new life, has relatively small price width to know, i can still guess about progress and keep feet firmly, if you know what i mean...

we have the equality of the A=C a 1:1 ratio
and a second ratio measure that culminates at the same price level
swing (A)=(C) a 1:2 ratio or a 100% x 200%
these two sets of ratios are exact in the cash session, there's no ambiguity that i can find
look at the chart, the two basic measures are there.....
there's a third measure (a harmonic 161.8% from 24th april at .052) that acts as a cluster which adds to the list of evidence...

plus we have a technical fake-out low weekly basis,
we can't call todays candle an outside-up day, although, when you take into consideration that the day started at the high of the previous close (prior to halt) then price swung thru the previous cash close and ran to equal the previous swing low and ended the session at twice the body-length of the previous candle body, then we kinda got very close to calling an outside up day, to me that counts in the bulls favour for sure, technically!

plus we came down to what is a typical round number that looks attractive (implying people generally like a round number to take action on such as 20 rather than 22)

plus (if anyone has a decent line chart for intraday) we essentially had a U-shape day (start high, swing low, finish high or higher) which tend to be bullish, technically

plus, looking at the chart, notice the weekly money flows on the IncredibleCharts, in that, while the 21-day money tends to be easily shaken and is reflected in value dipping below the zero line, whereas, the 13-week
metric clearly displays that deep pockets and longterm investors have chosen to stay in and ignore the swing, as relatively speaking, a 6 month swing is nothing for someone who has a 5 - 10 year horizon

i've cherry-picked one data point and that is the Accum/Distribution, kinda giving the bull the nod

volumes fell away as price descended, the lower we got the less was being churned, the point where holders say, there's no way i'm selling and forces the hand of the bid que to make a play....

if youre still awake after reading all of that and keep in mind doing the work is way quicker than explaining it, then, weldone!!

data courtesy Incrediblecharts.com free data

.......coffee