Billjaz, This raise has nothing to do with NFC as such. It is to...

Billjaz,

This raise has nothing to do with NFC as such. It is to keep the wheels turning over the coming months that it will take to finalise all the components required before the funding can come through. My guess is 25,000,000 shares issued at a slight discount to current price.

It has been explained before, but again the price that NFC has the option to acquire up to 19.9% will be based on an independent valuation of the project which will flow from the revised capex and opex figures which are also required for the financing. Therefore a dollar figure has certainly not been agreed to as yet. My feeling/understanding is that NFC will want to take this up but If they choose not to take up the 19.9% stake based on the independent valuation then there are a number of options;
- NFC take up a lower portion
- NFC don't take the option but offer a buy in on a lower valuation
-NFC don't take the option and IBG looks for an alternative investor (glencore, Nystar, etc)

Once IBG gets the 70% via NFC, then they will be able to get the other 30% one way or the other. The future share price will obviously be largely dependent on them obtaining this 30% with minimal project and/or share dilution.

In regards to NFC potential buy in price, they will of course be buying a percentage of the project rather than the company, but if we attribute 100% of the company value to the citronen project then a starting point would be the 2013 FS which valued the project NPV at US$600m pre tax & US$354 post tax. So 19.9% = US$70.5m ($A94m) therefore the 80.1% to IBG would be valued at A$377m or about 71 cents per share!

It is likely that there will be a further future raise to fill any construction funding shortfall. Even if they had to take the shares on issue from the existing 505m to say 800m (personally don't think it will be to this extent) that still equates to a per share NPV value of close to 50 cents. (if you want to use pre tax valuations then add another 70% to those figures)

This all points to massive upside that is shifting more and more from a possibility to probability day by day!

Yeatesy.