I participated in the recent CR and I'm a bit surprised to see...

I participated in the recent CR and I'm a bit surprised to see where it's trading today. Holders shouldn't be too concerned though, unless you're trying to trade or scalp a return. The fundamentals look extremely compelling.

At 7.5c that's a market cap of $24.5m. The NPV of the phosphate project by itself is $70.4m at an 8% discount rate. With the recent raise, the company is about $4m short of fully funding that project based on total capex of just $8m. The announcement on 6/4/21 said debt funding was well advanced, so I'm not expecting more dilution.

So just for that project, the Price/NPV is just 0.37x, which incorporates $4m in debt funding.

Meanwhile we have the construction license that is imminent, which will be immediately followed by the start of construction. Offtakes will be sorted over the next 6-8 months and we should be producing by Q4 of THIS YEAR



Comments from the last announcement

So the project economics look great, we have a bag of material catalysts that are imminent and we should be producing at the end of this calendar year. Honestly, why would you sell???

If we dive into the BFS we can see the quantum of earnings forecast. Obviously there will be some costs outside of this project related to copper so these are not a perfect alignment to the company but it's a good guide. In 2022 EBITDA will be $2m and then it jumps to $7m and $11m in 2023 and 2024. Remember, the market cap TODAY is $24.5m, so the EV/EBITDA on a forward view looks great in addition to the P/NAV



AND... that's just the phosphate project. The copper project has a NPV5 of $108m with an IRR of 44%. The phosphate IRR is 61%$ incidentally. Total capex for copper is just ~$20m, which will be funded by cashflow with the out of the money options another potential funding source.

If we combine the two projects then the economics look even more positive with a P/NAV of around 0.15x. This EXCLUDES any potential resource upgrades that will provide further upside to both NPV's.

This has multi bag written all over it IMO. GLTAH