Equally, today would not have been about releasing an updated busines splan.
Today, they paid over the balance of the settlement payment. They also took physical control of the business. They would have also gone inside and spent time directly with the CDC staff. And with that, they would have gotten on with doing business. But instead of this, some have demanded why there was not an immediate updated forecast, investor presentation, etc.
Patience therefore is not a virtue in this instant gratification world. Indeed, its almost as if on an episode of Boston Legal, someone can be accused of murder on Sunday and then the full blown trial takes place the following Tuesday.
Not even in a residential property settlement is the settlement done in anything under 90 days, from purchase to settlement, in most cases. Yes, there are exceptions but these are very much in the minority (<10% settling in <90 days; >15% settling in >90 days).
My point - today was all about physically settling and taking control. Next week is about being fully in control of the business. Then, at any time thereafter, it is about informing the market through an updated investor presentation.
Now, if we look at future timelines, the following is apparent:
* Q3 quarterly cash flow report + supporting commentary is due by 29/4/16.
* Likely, the Q3 report will be accelerated because they will want to reinforce both the Q3 reporting outcomes, settlement of CDC, investor prospects, etc, all at about the same time.
* The comments used today were:
"....The Company will provide a detailed update to market shortly on its business and growth plans for the combined CDC and AHF business."
So, the Q3 report is due within the next 2 weeks and in between now and then the investor update will be provided. I'm therefore suspecting that the update will be made sometime next week (circa mid week) followed by the Q3 very shortly thereafter (ie: both statements could well be made next week, proximate in timing to each other). But as for instant gratification, my concern is that far too many shares across too many different companies are all driven, held, maintained, enraged, gazumped or even abused and disabused by extreme short termism. That is, "if I can't double my money by tomorrow, then to hell with this stock". Such behaviour is, in many respects, driven entirely by emotion, (some would say, irrational) sentiment and limited focus. This is why there is often such a difference of opinion between fundamentalists and technical traders, short termers and long termers, day traders and investors. Each is to the ying as it is to the yang. Each involves a different perspective. But each also takes an entirely different approaches to actually understanding what's been said or announced.
So far this week, we've had the China Syndrome, the market correction, the countdown to settlement and the lack of an investor update, all rolled into one. So, let's be entirely clear about this. China is not the story, here.
First and foremost, Australia is the primary story here, with Asia being the second story and China, the third.
It is from within Australia that the milk is being sold to other processors, will now also be internally processed, the primary contracts (ADF, WOW) are held, the value added products made, the farms owned, and the hubs being developed.
The export market (including to China) is a small, strategic, but rapidly evolving business development. With increased focus, it will progressively become more significant, but just as 65 hours will get you from farm gate to China shelf, 24-36 hours will get you all throughout South East Asia, and especially, to Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand. 48-65 hours will get you to Japan.
So, all things considered, one of the other great proximities that CDC now has is that it is <90 minutes by road to Avalon. And whilst we are on about Avalon, the following small statement from Linfox on 11/4/14 might just be of some interest as arguably it suggests that by now, direct freight flights are happening between Avalon and China:
....
"The Linfox Group and China’s HNA Group have signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) to collaborate on a number of key joint initiatives. One of the highlights is to establish commercial flights and air freight services between Linfox’s Melbourne-Avalon Airport and China within the next 18 months" (ie: by late 2015 /early 2016).
Just another reason for someone to say "location, location, location".
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