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Ann: AIA NZ$200m Share Purchase Plan Oversubscribed, page-36

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madamswer

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02/05/20

12:24

Post #: 44395753
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Originally posted by andy777 ↑

I agree on principle. This is my 8th raising over a period of about 6 years. Back in the 'old days' you tended to get your full application i.e. much more than what was fair. Two things seem to have happened to disrupt that: the increase in the SPP size to 30K and the fact that the market/directors have wised up to the small holding strategy of accessing SPPs. The current system is much more fair and reasonable, particularly for retail investors with larger holdings.

Most of my holdings* are not going to net me the max amount unless the risk reward is not attractive at the closing date - by this I mean that the market price is approaching the SPP. Having examined RHC and NAB, which are both stated as proportional scale backs, the SPP offer size relative to market cap is less attractive in both cases than AIA. It will also depend on the distribution of investor holdings, which look unfavourable for NAB and don't appear in the annual report for RHC**. BAP has only stated that the scale back options are up to the directors’ discretion, but the structure looks similar to AIA, though less in the money.

My conclusion is that in the cases where I may get a full allocation, it will be due to low participation because the offer has become unattractive. There is also an opportunity cost with having your money locked up in a volatile market like this. Now that a precedent has been set, it would be surprising to see a really attractive deal allocating more than 40-50% of your holding at the census date. REH was an exception because of its unique shareholder distribution.

At this stage all RHC, NAB and BAP are less in the money so the take up rate may be lower than AIA. Still over 50% seems unlikely unless market conditions deteriorate.

* My portfolio is under 1M and has many holdings. There are a number of posters here who have portfolios of several million or are running more concentrated portfolios - it would make sense for them to apply for the maximum.

**Can anyone find the shareholder by shares held table for RHC?

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"**Can anyone find the shareholder by shares held table for RHC?"

@andy777,

Refer page 14 of the 2019 Annual Report

For some reason they present it under the heading "Additional Information" near the start of the Annual Report.

AIA Price at posting: $5.58 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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Last $6.76		Change -0.050(0.73%)		Mkt cap ! $10.00B

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
$6.82	$6.84	$6.76	$5.818M	856.8K

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
3	4511	$6.76

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
$6.81	4626	3

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
2	700	6.750
2	1500	6.720
1	2875	6.710
3	3000	6.700
2	1500	6.690

Price($)	Vol.	No.
6.970	700	1
6.990	950	1
7.000	9000	1
7.020	14489	3
7.050	225	1

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Ann: AIA NZ$200m Share Purchase Plan Oversubscribed, page-36

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Ann: AIA NZ$200m Share Purchase Plan Oversubscribed, page-36

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