Ann: Air NZ updates on capital raise timing and liquidity, page-213

The price of AIR and AIRRG over the last couple of days has been a godsend to holders. If you bought AIR for ~$1.40 a couple of weeks ago you could have sold your AIR for close to a dollar and the AIRRG for 60-70c. $1.40 turns into $1.60-1.70.

Getting back to reality now - AIR at 0.85 and AIRRG at 0.53, total ~$1.40. Once holders come to terms with the enormous dilution they have suffered perhaps it will fall further.

Even if AIR can return to the glory days of a few years ago, EPS and dividends will be 1/3 of what they were. The original earnings supported a share price of ~3-4 dollars, so we're looking at an AIR share price of perhaps $1 -> $1.50 being supported by earnings in 2026 if everything goes to plan and AIR reinstate dividends without needing more capital. Apply whatever discount rate and probability of that scenario occurring to come up with a fair price today.