There was 150m shares turned over for VWAP in the 1.3c range in 3days upon airguide appointment.
Approx 25m in the next 4 days at a slightly lower VWAP.
Was probably expecting more of a sell-off to 0.09c-1c to retest the break-out point but sellers have been pretty sticky considering. There was no major T+2 sell off.
Additionally, i expect the VWAP to remain here until performance shares are awarded. Then the next tranche is probably a good target for price. Which is around 2c.
Finally; comments of AG entering at .2c and pumping it to 1.4c are false IMO. insider trading wouldn't have allowed them, or individuals related to them, to purchase shares whilst conducting due diligence prior to their appointment.
IMO if AG are to purchase any shares it would be underwritten/participate in a placement to strategic partner once JORC resource is delineated. IMO
Key economics will come from the JORC result so as to determine basket pricing and delineate quantity and grade. For now can only make best guess assumptions from other clay deposits. Which as per these posts provide economical upside Post #:
41032985 with assumptions drawn from Post #:
41033723.
Key inputs to assumptions are opex and basket case pricing.
-Opex should be between 3USD-7USD as this is the pricing i have obtained from various clay deposits inside and outside china.
-Basket pricing varies depending on elements but i assume 20-40USD is achievable based off comparison to other vendors. Will need the JORC to verify this.
-Basket pricing on paper doesn't necessary directly correlate to negotiated contract pricing so a discount can be applied and this will be a key goal for AG to prove their worth on.
as per 8horse post from other clay deposit purchase.
Post #:
41034668
'OVL, is currently valued at $30m for 20% of the project, let's say, spending another $10m and successfully proved the resource, total issued shares would be around 3b, Chilean peer sale price $80m x 60% ownership = $48m / 3b shares 1.6c'
Purchase price was $56.3M USD for 94% ~ 87AUD.
60% ownership = $52MAUD
Chile resource JORC 121mT @ 0.047% TREO = 57kT of total equivalent resource.
Therefore deposit valued at $1m for 1kT of TREO.
OVL Exploration target of 300-500mT @ 0.04%-0.1% TREO = 200kT-500kT (IMO)
Would place valuation of $200m-500m at same $/t. (similar valuation principle people apply with stocks)
Assume the 10m to prove it up and obtain 60% ownership therefore 3b shares total issued (will be less if CR's are done at pricing premium today) so midpoint 350M project valuation / 3b SOI (should be less) = 11c.
1.6c is the outcome if OVL obtain 60% of 120mT at 0.047%.
11c is the outcome if OVL obtain 60% of ~ 400mT at ~ 0.08%
what the upside if they hit the upper target of exploration or even exceed it with additional tenement concessions (not including in resource exploration target)
I think there's minimum 2-3bags upside in the exploration phase where i will personally take a free-carry opportunity.
Appreciate balanced commentary
SF2TH
(20min delay)