I think it's pretty hard to value as it's still pre-profit and there's a very wide range of possible outcomes, but the risk/reward tradeoff seems very attractive to me at anything close to the current price (and I thought the same at higher prices too). I think they have the potential to be one of the biggest marketplace businesses in Australia (multi-billion market cap potential ala Seek, Carsales etc). Tim Fung has said the Australian business is already cash flow positive and I think there's a tonne of potential for them to grow significantly through their listings product (they're attempting to become a 'superstore' for services) as well as start to earn some more recurring revenue through rebooking functionality. The OneFlare acquisition, which seems destined to become 'Airtasker Pro' also seems a logical extension of the platform. The TAM is really massive, and that's not even taking into account the international expansion.
But there's still a lot to prove, they might never reach anything close to the scale they're hoping to, and their efforts in the US and UK could prove to be a big money drain for several years, or even a complete waste of resources.
It depends what probabilities you assign to success or failure, but to me, it's an asymmetric bet with the upside being several times greater than the downside. I personally think it's most probable that they'll be at least moderately successful, with some reasonable chance of being one of Australia's great tech companies.
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