Matt,
This is my take on it:
I am looking at shorting NXT and going long AJD.
NXT could be in breach of their lease and the way commercial leases operate they are
risking eviction.
"APDC has requested access on at least eight occasions since 21 November 2017. APDC has engaged legal counsel."
Depending on the wording of the lease, this would generally be a serious breach for which the lease could be terminated.
If NXT get kicked out because of their own stupidity, it appears APDC might have a major global data centre owner/operator ready to step in and take over operating the centres.
"APDC has also entered into preliminary discussions with third parties, including a global data centre owner/operator regarding the potential to significantly expand APDC in Australasia."
Either way the:
"the recent sale of the Metronode data centre portfolio which transacted at a 4.73% yield" [indicate] "that APDC’s portfolio could command a yield in this proximity which, based on a net income of approximately $14.06 million p.a., would equate to a portfolio value of circa $300 million representing an NTA of approximately $2.40 per security"
Based on AJDs unit price of $1.9 it looks like there could be some upside so I am going long AJD.
Regarding NXT, notwithstanding the risk they might lose access to the data centres, they are trading on a PE of 90 (i.e it could take 90 years for them to earn the $6 share price back if they get to keep operating the centres). Their $300m cash is offset by $300m in loans and their book value is mainly computers and plant rooms where the value is depreciating back to zero quite rapidly. It appears they dont own any real property although luckily they still own some of AJD. Base on this I am seriously thinking of shorting NXT.
(20min delay)