Great points VOCG.The U1 target in your spread sheet at 6%...

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bratty

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26/10/21

22:27

Post #: 57094632
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Originally posted by VOGC: ↑

Hi All,

Just my thoughts on today's release (all IMO but have an oil & gas exploration background so hope my thoughts may assist others):

Cheers
VOGC

In Summary:
(Slides following show summary & calculation for significance of Recovery Factor to potential volumes)

Melbana’s confidence in current pay zones constituting an oil and gas discovery:
"Melbana’s geoscience team is working on the preparation of an initial estimate of the potential extent of the identified pay zones, which are, based on electric log analysis and hydrocarbon shows, considered by Melbana to be an oil and gas discovery."
"considered by Melbana to be an oil and gas discovery" - strong statement - Geos must be very confident with log information

Potential for initial Resource numbers in near term for the currently identified pay zones?:
"Our geoscience team continue to (geologically) re-map the upper horizons to determine estimates of volumes of hydrocarbons in the pay zones identified to date."
Should release to Market as soon as available as potentially materially price sensitive.

Potential for a lighter oil than usually found in shallow horizons in the northern parts of Cuba:
"The collected oil samples suggest a lighter oil than the heavy oil which often occurs in shallow horizons in the northern parts of Cuba. This is also a very encouraging sign and we await the analysis of that oil with interest.”
Has potentially significant implications for Recovery Factor and thus Resources - MAY currently using a RF of 5% based on historical well data very likely from fields to north west of Block 9.
As an example - Second Slide (previously posted) shows that for a 20% increase in Recover Factor i.e. from 5% to 6% MAY's 30% of the Mean recoverable resources increases from 48.3 MMBO to 58 MMBO.

Expand

Great points VOCG.
The U1 target in your spread sheet at 6% having a mean of 25.6mmbo alone just for the upper target.
I dont think the market has priced in that this is quite likely where we ar at now or better. How do you arrive at AU$25bo? I thought I read production costs would be around US$10bo somewhere. What are the other costs to come out in Cuba?
Or is that the 30% share to MAY?

Last edited by bratty: 26/10/21

MAY Price at posting: 2.7¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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