MAY (ASX) Ann: Alameda-1 Drilling Update

Originally posted by Hateful8: ↑

Hi VOGC, brilliant interpretive post as always.. And yes I agree that at this stage it's as much about commercializing the discovery as it is total recoverable oil... AP wants 3P's & for that he needs commercials as well as recoverables...

Which brings me to my question, as how do you interpret the statement below from the net pay update across all structures?

To me it reads that we could possibly get a further update to total resources from the upper section as well as the lower sections when accounting for the fact that the net pay from Amistad has increased from circa 48m to 137m & that the increase to net pay zone was released after the previous resource upgrade to 119mmbo mean average est ref 14 mar 2022..

Huge win if it is because in 2018 the estimate for the whole well was 2.5bboip and now that is quoted for the upper section alone!!! Although it is possible results were known back then and calculated into the upper section upgrade I accept.

Also, based on your expertise where do you feel porosity will sit?

As one wonders what the porosity cut-off is now considering they tagged an extra 38m on to the possible 100 hoped for in the ref below from Nov 2021!

"The net pay total was derived using a conservative porosity cut-off of 12%. This makes no allowance for the presence of fracturing, however, which would increase this net pay estimate to ~100 metres by lowering the porosity cut-off in the calculation."

What we do know is;

They have been flaring hard drilling through late cretaceous limestone since 1842 metres all the way to TD..

Porosity has now been standardised, hence the upgrade to total net pay shown..

What they expected from the whole well (target 1, 2 & 3 from the catalyst target sheet shown) has been found in the upper sheet FFS... With more to come the way 8tey reads it?

Honestly, if they pull up here the well is a blinding success...

Even if they take Marti out of the equation for now they will still flow 224mTVD of highly charged net pay zone..

Flow rates were previously assumed to be 3000bopd on Varadero pressure & grade weighting with no allowance given for fracturing..

Tell me it doesn't do that at least.... !!

Then tell ya mum to get on it IMHOO hahahaha no advice given.. none, nada, zip GLTAH

Tore into it all day Friday ;-) 8tey

Independent Expert Upgrades Prospective
Resources in Cuba Block 9 (07- Aug-2018)
SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA (2 NOVEMBER 2021)
Melbana Energy Limited (ASX: MAY) (Melbana) is pleased to report the following update on the
progress of the Alameda-1 exploration well being drilled in Block 9 PSC, onshore Cuba.
Remedial works on the setting of the liner are complete. The cement plug that was injected has
been drilled out to 1,821 metres and will continue to 1,842 metres once the higher density mud has
displaced the well. Drilling ahead to the deeper targets will then continue, following a successful
formation integrity test and pressure test of the blow-out preventer.
Given the increase in pressure detected at approximately 1,800 metres it was important that these
remedial works be completed to the standard required by the well design before drilling forward. In
parallel to undertaking these works an additional mud gas separator was installed to give the rig
enhanced capacity.
Analysis of an oil sample previously collected reported an API of 15°, lighter
than the nearby Varadero field (reportedly 10 – 14° API). Sampling
conditions were not optimum, however, and better samples will be
attempted to be collected and reanalysed at the next opportunity. Oil of this
specific gravity is common in Cuba and typically free flowing.
Mapping has commenced to characterise the resource potential of the
unexpected hydrocarbon zones encountered so far. As reported previously,
it is estimated wireline logs indicate ~48 metres of net pay across 11 zones
totalling 415 metres of gross section (but excluding ~290 metres that could
not be analysed due to poor well conditions but within which good oil shows
were also encountered).
The net pay total was derived using a conservative porosity cut-off of 12%.
This makes no allowance for the presence of fracturing, however, which
would increase this net pay estimate to ~100 metres by lowering the porosity
cut-off in the calculation.

14 March 2022

SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA (7 APRIL 2022)

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Hi Hateful8,

Have just run some numbers on the possible increase to Amistad Resources due to the increased net pay of 137m. I've noted in the Slides below my assumptions and calculations and supporting MAY release information etc. Very much agree with your comments on the potential for an Amistad resource increase - if fact potentially a very significant increase.

As for the porosity cut-off MAY is now using, I would think this would slightly less than 9% - based on what they have released.

Agree that the Lower Sheet structures, Alameda & Marti, are also very likely to receive a boost to their Resources due to the porosity cut-offs that MAY are now using. Pre drill I would have expected MAY to have used a fairly conservative cut-off - AP has stated that the Nett / Gross in the Alameda was higher than expected, which IMO can be directly related to porosity cut-off values.

GLTAH
Cheers
VOGC