"Let's think about the broader geo-politics of this question...
Cuba is currently a vassal state of Russia 90 miles from the US. It is this, in part, because it is an impoverished sh!thole with minimal ability to generate foreign currency reserves through export sales, thus there is a financial incentive for them to remain on Russia's teat. They (if Marti and Alameda hit the way is anticipated) will suddenly have excess (to domestic consumption) output of oil (i.e exports). This also doesn't even account for the potential land rush (and thus additional export revenue) that may happen if Block 9 proves a goer (for other exploration tenements in Cuba). Thus they are potentially moments away from being a country that can exist in an international market without needing to use Russia as a financial crutch.
If you are the US, and Cuba now has no need to be linked to Russia (formally), why would you not seek to immediately establish closer ties with them. You can move from Stick to Carrot almost immediately because the nexus between RUS and CUB is broken. Repealing H-B / rendering it ineffective would be a logical part of welcoming them back into the international community. I am sure deals would be done that for freeing up trade access those companies that were robbed in the 50s would have 1st right of application to operate in Cuba.
A financially independent Cuba is a boon for the US and they would be mad not to embrace them quickly as that would also mean that they thwart any Chinese attempts at having over-represented interest in the area.
In short, any spectre of US action against Cuba is completely illogical and counter to US strategic interests. Thus any H-B fears should be relegated to the wildly improbably bin. If US companies got uppity about it they could certainly be appeased in alternate ways domestically. An oil / export rich Cuba is only a good thing for the US."
Good post.
The problem with your logic is it is too logical.
US Foreign Policy doesn't necessarily follow logic.
The US's distrust and dislike of Cuba is visceral and runs deep.
MAY Price at posting:
7.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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