I think you need to clearly define what you mean by "fail". I...

I think you need to clearly define what you mean by "fail". I personally believe - based on everything that has been published by the company - that they will aim to produce out of Alameda - that 3,210-3,310 zone - which reconciles with the core tests at those levels, and reconciles with their devious statements regarding identifying the best production zone. I don't think they will produce out of Marti, at least, not on this well. But they will learn from Marti and may access it from another well if the metrics stack up.

So "failure" to me means being unable to produce out of Alameda, in which case they have already made A3 observations regarding the upper units, hence my comment that the back-up plan will be to use the "top section" of A3 to produce from Unit 1B. If that is the case (under this "fail" scenario) we will have two wells (A2 and A3) producing from Unit 1B. As to the flow, we could argue about that all day: but my guess is that A2 and A3 producing from Unit 1B would yield a total of around 2,500 bopd - which is about 50% of their 5,000 bopd 2024 target. A higher yield from a third well may be possible with a horizontal perhaps; or maybe they will simply opt for two more verticals from another pad. Who knows.

Either way, that 2024 5k bopd target actually seems quite reasonable. Add that to the upgraded reserves (McDaniel will be releasing the other upper unit calcs sometime in the coming weeks/months) and it makes the 6 cent ($200mm MC) quite laughable.

Happy to hear an alternative viewpoint; but simply repeating doomsday predictions is not constructive.

Regards
Kit.