Incorrect, let me explain.Figure 1: analysis by user Flambeau to...

Incorrect, let me explain.


Figure 1: analysis by user Flambeau to show the expenses and JV contributions over time (some assumptions were made about the % of "reimbursement of block 9 back costs and contributions from JV partner).

		Quarterly 31 March 2024	Quarterly 31 December 2023	Quarterly 30 September 2023	Quarterly 30 June 2023	Quarterly 31 March 2023	Quarterly 31 December 2022	Quarterly 30 September 2022	Quarterly 30 June 2022	Quarterly 31 March 2022	Quarterly 31 December 2021	Quarterly 30 September 2021	Quarterly 30 June 2021	Quarterly 31 March 2021	Quarterly 31 December 2020	Quarterly 30 September 2020	Quarterly 30 June 2020	Quarterly 31 March 2020	Quarterly 31 December 2019	Quarterly 30 September 2019
1	Other (Contributions from JV Partner)	$13,852,000.00	$5,038,000.00	$8,472,000.00	$10,760,000.00	$8,503,000.00	$0.00	$12,749,000.00	$11,998,000.00	$4,759,000.00	$2,313,000.00	$9,546,000.00	$2,324,000.00	$10,312,000.00	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
2
3	Cash and cash equivalents at end of period	$16,388,000.00	$20,068,000.00	$31,224,000.00	$35,124,000.00	$37,508,000.00	$39,095,000.00	$45,526,000.00	$35,569,000.00	$32,095,000.00	$20,041,000.00	$22,605,000.00	$10,692,000.00	$14,149,000.00	$6,873,000.00	$2,513,000.00	$1,781,000.00	$1,528,000.00	$1,890,000.00	$2,761,000.00
4
5	Bank balances	$16,388,000.00	$20,068,000.00	$31,224,000.00	$35,124,000.00	$37,508,000.00	$39,095,000.00	$45,526,000.00	$35,569,000.00	$32,095,000.00	$20,041,000.00	$22,605,000.00	$10,692,000.00	$14,149,000.00	$6,873,000.00	$2,513,000.00	$1,168,000.00	$916,000.00	$735,000.00	$1,607,000.00
6
7	Other - Outstanding Cash Calls from JV Partner	$31,044,000.00	$22,768,000.00	$16,158,000.00	$12,389,000.00	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
8
9	Total available funding	$47,432,000.00	$42,836,000.00	$47,382,000.00	$47,513,000.00	$37,508,000.00	$39,095,000.00	$45,526,000.00	$35,569,000.00	$32,095,000.00	$20,041,000.00	$22,605,000.00	$10,692,000.00	$14,149,000.00	$6,873,000.00	$2,513,000.00	$1,781,000.00	$1,528,000.00	$1,890,000.00	$2,761,000.00
10
11	(Payments for exploration & evaluation…	$17,205,000.00	-$13,379,000.00	-$12,275,000.00	-$12,388,000.00	-$9,380,000.00	-$4,176,000.00	-$17,669,000.00	-$10,894,000.00	-$6,495,000.00	-$14,290,000.00	-$7,586,000.00	-$5,805,000.00	-$1,774,000.00	-$183,000.00	-$140,000.00	-$90,000.00	-$43,000.00	-$129,000.00	-$247,000.00

source: ASX:MAY quarterly data on "other (contributions from JV partner)" and "cash and cash equivalents at the end of period", "bank balances" and "other - outstanding cash calls from JV partner", and "total available funding" from 2019 to 04/2024.

Overall yes, if exploration went on forever, they would need to take a break whilst waiting for contributions. However as we know, exploration will not be infinite, if ASX:MAY is the operator the tables will turn when full time production starts. ASX:MAY control the purse strings as the operator. For example: "the goal remaining to export the first cargo before the end of 2024". source: 25 Mar 2024, ASX:MAY, Block 9 - Maiden Contingent Resources https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02788385-3A639342 Therefore, this is a temporary deficit in my opinion. The downrampers are on a timer to complain about this until the first cargo is exported (~8months left).

However, if you do another analysis and add up all the "exploration & evaluation" expenses and take the respective payments owed from Sonangol for the first 2x wells, (85%) then all expenses after (70%) then add back the contributions, then the deficit is ~ -$10,634,550.00 (this number assumes $5mil were provided for 2.5 "other (reimbursement of block 9 back costs and contributions from JV partner) according to the farm in agreement 27/05/2020". Which is basically one payment away from correction. (-$68,689,000.00 x 0.85 = -$58,385,650.00, -$64,627,000.00 x 0.70 = -$45,238,900.00, -$58,385,650.00+ -$45,238,900.00 = --$103,624,550.00 add the contributions: $92,990,000.00 = -$10,634,550.00) (why is this important? If they want, they could just renegotiate the back cost $5,000,000 as a loan etc etc,).

"The tax year runs from 1 January to 31 December." Angola's tax year ends 31 Dec, therefore this basically their tax time.

But.... if you really want to know what is going on... just look at the original agreement:


source: https://www.melbana.com/site/cpfile/9a739fca-e643-4012-83eb-94d230ef960e/MAYEVO20230605.pdf

Soo.... according to the quarterlies, Sonangol is paying exactly what they are required to pay according to the original agreement up to March Q 2023 (for example, Mar Q 23 was exactly the same, Dec 2022 exactly the same as the above schedule etc etc)... After that I assume a new schedule was made of which I am not privy to.

Therefore Sonangol's behaviour has been exemplary, at least up to what I have evidence for e.g March Quarterly 2023.

The bottom line is, the deficit is 1-2 quarterlies from balancing, I am not concerned and there are legitimate reasons for it (the most expensive exploration period to date [appraisal program]). After production starts, Melbana will be in control of the money, and they will pay themselves to be the operator in addition to their fair share, blue sky ahead.