Ann: Alameda1 Independent Resources Assessment Marti Reservoir, page-84

The resource estimates put out by independent expert McDaniel and associates seems overly conservative.
1535 millions barrels of oil in place
With a 95 million barrel resource
That’s a recovery rate of 6.19%.
Especially given that Marti’s lower structure has ridiculous pressures so much so that there were legitimate fears that the well couldn’t be controlled (with the distinct possibility of a blowout) and that a subsequent cement plug had issues stopping oil escaping.
Yes the recovery rates in Cuba have historically been around 5% but that’s generally from low pressure reserves and with oil of low 10-14 API. There’s historical data that Marti’s API may be around 22-24.
A recovery rate of 12% could easily be possible and may even be probable.
This doubles the resource to about 190 million barrels.
This doesn’t take into account by using the 3U figures where the resource doubles anyway.
The other unknown is whether the water contact had been reached and it hasn’t been established whether the drill reached the true depth of the oil reservoir.
Time will tell which of all these outcomes will eventuate.