I do think your odds are conservative when you said 1 in 3 (%33)...

I do think your odds are conservative when you said 1 in 3 (%33) because of the following:

the pre approval for bidding which just happened was meant to look at a company’s technical and financial capabilities and we managed to pass that. For me Alara’s disadvantage was its financial capability but the fact that the ministry was willing to overlook that and approve us to go to bidding stage is significant.

Now the next stage is the proposal where every company will have to draw up their proposed plan of action once they get the license and the ministry will score the plans in terms technical capabilities and contribution to local economy ( by that i mean which company will propose to keep most of the operations in Saud and thus benefit the economy one example they talked about in their seminar was if a company were to propose building a zinc smelter in Saudi it would be looked at positively)

Now that being said logically which company will have the most extensive detailed plan of action? Of course a logical answer would be Alara, because they have had the most experience with the tenement up for bidding.

that being said this why i see their chances higher than any company in the field by far.