I’m counting on us settling around 15c (MC=100m) after production commences in Oman, and our probability of going to production next year is extremely high.
If we were to win the auction in Saudi I believe it will be as a minor partner in a joint bid. Personally I’d be happy with anything over a 10% share of the project, but even if we aren’t successful I still believe that at worst we’ll end up selling the DFS to whoever does win for close to our current MC. Once again, a high probability of getting a good result. Yes, we could end up with nothing but it doesn’t seem very likely to me that such a potential advantage in time would go unused by the successful bidder.
I’m expecting that once Oman starts production and we get some sort of deal in Saudi that our baseline should be closer to 20c. Any slice of the project in Saudi would be icing on the cake.
AUQ Price at posting:
4.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
