It's all good and everything is going according to plan
ALB has withdrawn its Indicative Proposal "due to the growing complexities associated with executing the transaction",..
and LTR in Trading Halt "for the finalisation of funding associated with the Kathleen Valley Project".
There is no surprise about ALB's decision. We knew ALB would withdraw its offer as it was the only way to bid again. Yes ALB will be back because ALB has to buy KV project (as I explained many time before) as there is no other project close to it in Australia.
However I didn't see LTR would announce the "
finalisation of funding" so quickly. That's the interesting part for me. And this part "Liontown is committed to delivering on its strategic plan and is confident in its ability to
thrive independently."
Funding anns so quickly would mean a few things if it was not said it's finalised.
If it was said "trading halt regarding funding of JV project" then I'd think that LTR board was pushing both parties, ALB and Gina (or her JV) to make new bids. However when it's finalised then it's different.
But the anns says it's finalised. What that means to me is; LTR board saying clearly that we are on the way to production. We will see a finalised financing of the project on Wednesday. If anyone bids again the bidder will have to deal with the new debt facility and its structure. It's not a big deal though.
Stock price drop; No problems.
Look guys, it was clear from our investigation here on these threads (thanks to
@yacheng) that Hancock bought more than 100m shares from the shorters of its 438m LTR shares (19.9%).
The shorters gave (sold) those shares to Hancock by the expectation of price drop and buy them back. However they will not be buying them back at a good price. The reason is this;
Hancock's remaining part 228m shares (438m-100m) is sold by the LTR holders here.
That means we have sold ave. 10% of our shares to Hancock.
I believe at least half of these people will buy their shares back when the stock price goes down 10%, which means around $2.70. That makes 110m shares will be bought back and that's nearly the same amount which the shorters have to buy back.
So there will be a big competition, hence not much price drop.
Why people will buy back? Because it's for sure that either LTR will go to production or will receive a higher bid. Which one you like is up to you.
Gina didn't buy those 438m shares which she paid $1.3b to sell at cheaper price. She will come to production with us or make a higher bid with her JV partner (my guess is RIO as you know).
I'm also strongly expecting ALB will make a higher bid. We will see how they will fix the problem of Gina's blocking stake.
Regarding to LTR "finalisation of funding", this is the part I'm most interested. It' be nice to see the result. I trust our management. I'm sure they have found the best solution.
Once again guys, if we stay solid behind TG, then we will win in any case. That's the key.
Hancock said that it's the largest shareholder of LTR.
Yes but it's on the paper.
But not on the real thing.
TG is still the largest holder by far because there is at least 50% of shareholding (plus TG's 15%) is supporting him.
So, it's up to Tim if he would like to get Hancock in board or not.
Btw, Tim never begged for support from anyone as far as I know. I know couple of large holders, Tim never called them and asked their support in any circumstances. (Never called me for that either). He only responds if any of those holders call him. He has a very strong integrity and doing his best to create shareholding value for everyone.
Go Tim.
And do it.
(20min delay)