And let me explain the logic of why ALB won't be back. We can apply a bit of game theory to logically work through it.
1. ALB can't take over LTR without GR support.
2. Gina just bought $800mil worth of shares a touch under $3. So we can safely assume she won't sell under $3.
3. The current offer is $3.
4. ALB have chosen not to increase their offer above $3 after doing 4 weeks of DD and knowing that GR has 19.9% stake.
5. The share price will likely drop, but GR can't buy a material amount of shares to lower her average.
6. ALB could buy more shares when it drops to increase their stake. However GR is still a majority holder with close to a $3 cost base.
7. Albermale still will need to offer above $3 - which they could do today but they aren't!
You can see that all roads lead back to an offer over $3. If Albermarle wanted to go above $3 they could have done that today. Lithium assets have gotten cheaper not more expensive.
From Gina's perspective, knowing that ALB won't go above $3 she has three options left.
1. Take the company over at $3 - This is unlikely to get shareholder support unless the LTR price crashes and stays down.
2. Let the company struggle and take it over when LTR are in a corner, both operationally and when the stock price is languishing.
3. No take over and let LTR go mining.
Now let me ask you, if you were a Billionare, which option would you choose? Option 1, 2 or 3? 2 is the most attractive by far, followed by option 3. Option 1 is the least attractive.
LTR is boxed in a corner and GR has her foot firmly on their throat.
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Last
84.0¢ |
Change
0.005(0.60%) |
Mkt cap ! $2.037B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
80.0¢ | 86.5¢ | 80.0¢ | $8.710M | 10.32M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
7 | 110884 | 83.5¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
84.5¢ | 213383 | 11 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
7 | 110884 | 0.835 |
10 | 133636 | 0.830 |
9 | 116456 | 0.825 |
3 | 46387 | 0.820 |
4 | 167788 | 0.815 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.845 | 213383 | 11 |
0.850 | 22852 | 3 |
0.860 | 33576 | 5 |
0.865 | 134989 | 13 |
0.870 | 62344 | 8 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 11/11/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
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