Thank you for the front end of your post, but I beg to differ.
Your post, much like mine, is based on supposition. The biggest difference that I see is that the timing of the various publicly-announced statements do not add-up to your position. I'm not sure that they add-up to mine, either, but I'm guessing that if 2 and 2 don't make 4, I'm at least at either 3 or 5.
BTW, I didn't indicate that LTR flushed GR out, nor that GR and ALB worked together. Rather the opposite, LTR flushed ALB out, and I think that either GR was taking advantage of the situation or else LTR and GR were working together. Again, given that GR was already accumulating shares when ALB made their $3 announcement, it would seem that the prior $2.50 announcement may have either made her "see the light" or else made the LTR BOD see said light, and start a discussion with her.
Note that I am also not counting on GR for the financing, and specifically noted that it could still come from ALB. They NEED LTR spod to help keep their Kemerton Plant costs down, and some combination of debt, equity, or has been utilized a few times in the past year, financing tied to future spod shipments, all wrapped-up with a bow and an OTA for ALB, would all fit-in with ALB's needs as much as LTRs. Since ALB hopes to have Kemerton optimized and humming soon, while also trying to construct two more trains, means that they not only need LTR's spod, but they need it ASAP, so helping move the project along, and making sure that commissioning happens by the first half of CY24, all makes sense.
Finally, I didn't say anything about a V recovery. I predicted the drop in SP, and as I noted in another LTR string, there's no trade halt here in the States, and LTR dropped 10.36%, today (Monday). How far it will drop and how long it will take to recover are not my concern. The average of 17 analysts indicate that we are expected to generating a $2B per year profit in two years, meaning we should be seeing $1/share earnings. A little back of the napkin math would anticipate a SP of $8 to $10 and $0.25 to $0.30 in dividends.
I'm glad you were so civil, and we will know which one of us is correct by tomorrow. I've been wrong before.
Cheers!
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