While that's true, the good news is that KPO get paid at FNTP as well as when the job completes
In the webinar interview we heard Ross say that KPO would have a sustainable business even without the royalties or waterfall payments after the plants were complete.
I wrote up a timetable some time ago on when KPO will get paid over the next few years:
Q1 2021 - $4.6m in reimbursement costs and $1.5m + $1.5m for half of the development fee due at FNTP
= $7.6m next quarter (or maybe april)
= $7.6m revenue for 2021
Q1 2022 - $2.2m reimbursement fee and $9m development fee for FNTP for projects 3, 4 & 5
Q2 & 3 2022 - Nothing scheduled there but perhaps there will be talks of projects 5-10
Q4 2022ish - Projects 1 & 2 complete - $3m for the other half of dev fee
= $14.2m revenue for 2022 assuming no major delays and no further FNTP payments
2023 is speculating a bit more.
I assume 5 more projects get FNTP for $15m + reimbursement costs and we start seeing waterfall payments come through for projects 1 & 2
Revenue $15-25m
I'm not sure for a fact, but I assume that with our costs incurred being reimbursed, any revenue we generate should spit out over 50% EBITDA
If that's the case then by 2025 we could be showing up to $50m EBITDA, but there's many many variables in there.
As long as projects 1 and 2 go ok, I'm happy to call KPO derisked and a real contender to show us a $1b market cap
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