ALC 0.88% 5.6¢ alcidion group limited

Sorry, but I need to point out a few incorrect assumptions that...

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  1. 4,845 Posts.
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    Sorry, but I need to point out a few incorrect assumptions that have been made.

    "I suspect that to date most upfront revenue has actually come at a loss to ALC, or at best, breakeven"

    Not correct. Last quarter we ran at a profit of $600k that was spent on R&D once the funds became apparent. We have had many recent quarters of cash flow positive and neutral results INCLUDING costs involved outside the deployment of the software. How would this be the case is we are losing money on deployment?

    "They will have been desperate to land reference sites with the technology, so a small or nil upfront margin may be acceptable. Again, it's unclear if this is the case, and whether this is just for a short time, or is a longer-term strategy."

    Desperate? Strange choice of word... Management has been very open and honest in the fact that the costs are high in any initial install where the systems in place have not yet been carried out by Alcidion in another project elsewhere. However on any additional install in the same chain of hospitals, or just matching systems in new contracts will provide "substantial profits" (insert management grin here).

    I know first hand that even the strategy of the "big boys" in this game are to use a "Land and Expand" strategy in sales. Nothing desperate in that at all. It is a sound sales technique, get your foot in the door then focus on expanding your presence.

    In some recent communication to management I pointed out that we have not had much detail around the profitability of Alcidion, there has been a far bit of downramping regarding this here on HC and elsewhere. I am very glad to see this (slide 6) appear as well and I would point out that the ongoing/annual fees often known as "support" is where all the money is made across the IT software industry.

    "Going forward though, investors will want to see predictable, repeatable margins and metrics. Once these metrics become clear, investors will be able to apply them to estimates of sales velocity in order to determine what could be a suitable valuation for the business."

    And I am sure investors will have all of this in time. But we are talking a sub 5 cent share price at this stage. When revenues are sitting in the hundreds of millions per annum and the share price is over $1.00 all this will be available. Sales velocity is not how a micro cap business is valued, if we had sales velocity we would not be sitting sub 5 cents. Most companies with our market cap have not even managed to sell a product yet, yet alone realised the dream of becoming cash flow positive.

    "I posted recently that CY17 has been a bit of a bummer for investors as the excitement of ALC last year wore off and reality set in."

    I disagree with this too. Alcidion has completed a huge number of milestones over the last year. The share price may have dropped over this time, but share prices often don't show the true value of a company, especially at this end of town. We were hit by an unhappy director dumping shares, contagion from another company in the healthcare space whose share price plummeted on over promises (just happened to involve the same director) and many more things that were not company specific. But, to look at this another way, many of us would not have had the chance to invest at such great prices had the share price not taken the beating it has.

    As far as your SAAS questions go, we are fully aware that the cost per acquisition changes and for each install where similar programs are in use from a previous install carried out by ALC, our costs are significantly lower - so this cant be laid out in a table for easy access. Customer lifetime? Again, "new 5 cent share company" here. Landing customers, stage one. But I would also add that in many contract announcements the term of commitment is very much stated. I would also add that once you are integrated with their data, it is difficult to be removed, you really have to monumentally stuff up to lose your place. Breakeven point? well that makes an assumption I have covered earlier.

    Again, growth story? sales velocity? This end of town is Speculation. Anything concrete (like ALC has shown) is just a huge bonus.

    Oh and of course, I love the presentation. MUCH better thought out than the previous I have seen (am I seeing new director input?) and it has been created to gain investor interest!

    Hopefully the next thing we here from management is regarding a nice large expansion. Post Landing Party! Bring on the announcement.
 
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