Ann: Alcoa Corp 3rd Quarter 2023 Earning Release, page-11

these comments sound somewhat negative to me.

The stock was trading at around $1.50 two or three years ago when presumably they were mining normal higher quality ore.

If you buy it now at $0.80 and hold onto it for 3 years without any dividends, assuming a fair dividend is around 5%, then after three years the purchase owes you about $0.92 (ie $0.80 + 3 x $0.04).

If, after 3 years they are then again mining high quality ore, the fair price should again be more or less $1.50. Thats a $0.58 profit for a 3 year investment.