To me the picture now is that the company has clearly confirmed...

To me the picture now is that the company has clearly confirmed the previous outlook. In terms of the SP, it has obviously suffered recently and the significant factor going forward is the supply overhang from the holders who bought in following the bearish reversal at the beginning of June. Some will have sold out but it is obvious from the steady supply recently that there will be a remainder out there waiting to recover losses.

My expectation post announcement is that we are likely to see a floor under the price followed by a period of consolidation as the supply is mopped up. The wild card is whether any institutional buyers, not just institutional traders as we have seen for some time, come along and ramp up the buying pressure.

Retail buying isn't going to be the answer. I think retail selling has been more a part of the problem to date as patience dried up over the last couple of months. What happens this afternoon in the last hour or so might better give an indication of whether there is some professional support out there now.