Hi all
The pain AJX has caused over a long period has to be acknowledged however I would prefer to discuss the information at hand rather than the emotional impact. In hindsight none of us would have invested and are now probably trapped given low price and lack of volume. I acknowledge my very high risk approach and accept responsibility for it (not that it doesn’t hurt). You might not like Jasmin’s style but he/she has posted on many doomed stocks, and I believe is rarely wrong – in my opinion because he/she focuses on microcaps with a bad track record of management. Maybe a salient warning to beware micro/small caps and to get out at first opportunity upon a failed commitment by management – before you get trapped like we all are.
That said, my list of pro’s and con’s is as follows:
Pro’s
· I’m actually pleased with cap raise – I think we were just about dead in the water without it.
· Genuinely interested in opinion on why would Simon Moore/Colinton/Wentworth throw good money after bad? I remember a company known as Tiger Resources (TGS) that had a copper mine in Congo. In my view, investors were deliberately diluted out of the company so key investor could take over a copper mine at a time of low copper prices. A copper mine has a known resource and value via the commodity itself and I can therefore understand the strategy. If AJX goes belly up what does Simon Moore/Colinton/Wentworth get other than an IP asset that has been demonstrated to be a commercial failure. If I’m correct, Simon Moore/Colinton/Wentworth have invested somewhere around $10M and therefore would need to be able to sell IP for circa $15M to cover costs and their investment. Who would pay that?
· No long term debt.
· Director's foregoing cash salary for shares.
· Directors buying into cap raise.
Con’s
· Obviously – track record is terrible. NC & Gavin – woeful, Dirk – not much better, Bob – better at research than CEO, Billy??
· Dilution means less upside potential in SP.
· I’m a bit suspicious around timing of announcement – first trading day after Christmas.
· I believe Bob Brookins father invested $500k in a previous cap raise – somehow sold his shares and fell off the top 20 shareholder register – not sure how it happened but not a good look.
· Product appears ok for bedding but unproven at anything else at this stage.
Other discussion points:
· Simon Moore/Colinton/Wentworth will own far greater than 20% - what does this mean.
· Simon Moore/Colinton/Wentworth – shares issued for payout of convertible note are locked for 12 months – why?
My view:
· AJX is far more likely to fail than succeed – however it is still alive and thanks to cap raise at least a chance of succeeding.
· I’m $250k down – will not invest further unless announcements between now and late March see SP rise well above cap raise price.
· I believe that the directors believe – doesn’t mean they will succeed. Why would Billy come to AJX if he saw no future, why would directors sacrifice cash for shares in lieu of salary, why would Simon Moore/Colinton/Wentworth invest more? May be ulterior motives to drive ordinary shareholders out through dilution but I can't see why.
All of the above is clearly tainted by my hopeful/wishful thinking - DYOR and know your own risk appetite.
