Hi JW, thx for response. Always good to compare thoughts with someone who has done a decent amount of work as well. I would be keen to show you my model, but very reluctant to share contact details in this forum. I believe it is possible to model each orchard given the publicly available info ... but the basic numbers are as follows at full production years for the NSW & VIC Company Orchards(ie from CY15 or FY16 onwards): Planted area = 8820 acres, prospectus yield = 1175kgs/acre, Operating Costs (including lease costs) = $2400/acre, water consumption = 5.1 mega litres/acre, water price = $100/mega litre, Processing & Marketing costs = 50c/kg, and Almond Price of $A5/kg gives us ~$21m EBITDA (obviously yield, almond price and water price are massive swing factors). Add that to Managed Orchards EBIT of $1m (post loss of Olam contract), Food Division EBIT $6m and Corporate Costs $4m = Group EBITDA of 24m and NPAT of $10m (after $6m D&A, $5m Int Costs & $4m tax). But if the yield continues to run 30% below target (ie there are permanent impairments), we are talking about Group EBITDA of $10m and NPAT of $0. I have not included WA in my numbers either as I stick by my prior comments (they are on care and maintenance).
I know its not a great way to present numbers, but if you can make sense of this and have a different view re assumptions, would be keen to hear it. Cheers.
- Forums
- ASX - By Stock
- Ann: Almond Update
Hi JW, thx for response. Always good to compare thoughts with...
-
- There are more pages in this discussion • 22 more messages in this thread...
You’re viewing a single post only. To view the entire thread just sign in or Join Now (FREE)
Featured News
Add SHV (ASX) to my watchlist
(20min delay)
|
|||||
Last
$4.10 |
Change
-0.050(1.20%) |
Mkt cap ! $496.3M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$4.17 | $4.17 | $4.02 | $597.7K | 146.0K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 329 | $4.09 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
$4.12 | 1062 | 1 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 155 | 4.070 |
1 | 155 | 4.060 |
1 | 155 | 4.050 |
1 | 155 | 4.040 |
1 | 155 | 4.030 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
4.130 | 155 | 1 |
4.140 | 155 | 1 |
4.150 | 155 | 1 |
4.160 | 155 | 1 |
4.170 | 155 | 1 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 06/09/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
Featured News
SHV (ASX) Chart |