Hi JW, thx for response. Always good to compare thoughts with...

Hi JW, thx for response. Always good to compare thoughts with someone who has done a decent amount of work as well. I would be keen to show you my model, but very reluctant to share contact details in this forum. I believe it is possible to model each orchard given the publicly available info ... but the basic numbers are as follows at full production years for the NSW & VIC Company Orchards(ie from CY15 or FY16 onwards): Planted area = 8820 acres, prospectus yield = 1175kgs/acre, Operating Costs (including lease costs) = $2400/acre, water consumption = 5.1 mega litres/acre, water price = $100/mega litre, Processing & Marketing costs = 50c/kg, and Almond Price of $A5/kg gives us ~$21m EBITDA (obviously yield, almond price and water price are massive swing factors). Add that to Managed Orchards EBIT of $1m (post loss of Olam contract), Food Division EBIT $6m and Corporate Costs $4m = Group EBITDA of 24m and NPAT of $10m (after $6m D&A, $5m Int Costs & $4m tax). But if the yield continues to run 30% below target (ie there are permanent impairments), we are talking about Group EBITDA of $10m and NPAT of $0. I have not included WA in my numbers either as I stick by my prior comments (they are on care and maintenance).

I know its not a great way to present numbers, but if you can make sense of this and have a different view re assumptions, would be keen to hear it. Cheers.