Agree with most of your points.
Not sure about the 3 year payback period. I assume you’re talking about the payback period in the presentations which is just the Cap Ex/EBITDA. A misleading number imo.
As EBITDA is before interest costs, the mezzanine loan rates and stream rate are important, particularly the mezz loan as it’s a big loan at a high rate. Dilution keep to a minimum but very high debt.
Market needs to know what the final funding mix will look like. The JV option is a big unknown.
Iggy has stated finance close could be as late as end of January 2019, so working backwards I’m guessing the final mix will be revealed sometime in October.
The construction ball is rolling at maximum speed now. If finance was finalised today construction couldn’t go any faster.
I would like to see an explanatory statement about pioneer status in the next quarterly update if not announced beforehand.
The SP recently broke through 20c. Post the CR share issue volatility period in August and with more construction progress, the SP could creep back over 20c again, but only >25c post finance close, assuming the finance deals are good imo.
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