Well the numbers didn't surprise.
When the project was first announced on 14/09/2022 they estimated revenue at €700 - 900 per KWh, at final pack costs.
The DFS has come in on the high side at €883 per KWh.
Uve said in one of his interviews the capex would be north of €150m. The DFS comes in at €156m, lower than I expected.
I estimated around a 50% margin and the DFS has it at 47%.
Technically it seems comprehensive and reads very well IMO.
The Company has decided to concurrently develop the project while the funding process is underway.
'The process will likely take until end-2024 and it is important that the Company keeps advancing the project'.There goes this year.
My experience with Altech over the past 8 years makes me think - add on another 6 months and round up.
Announcement on 24/10/2023
'These packs are already in production, with roughly half of the required cells completed'.Five months later in today's DFS:
'The process of cell assembly, encompassing vacuum filling, heating, and welding, is ongoing, resulting in the completion of
approximately half of the cells'.
The assembly of cells into the battery housing will be undertaken once all cells are finalised which is expected
by mid 2024.
Someone's telling porkies. They better get cracking! Mid year never means 30th June. IMO it will slip to late 3rd quarter.
Last week we finally saw the cost of the Fraunhofer R&D agreement at €13.6m (ouch), with total instalments of €2.6m (€1.95m ATC) this year.
Is the Cerenergy offtake dependent on the prototypes being completed? Sounding more like it rather than a conditional agreement.
In advanced offtake discussions with two companies. They've been advancing for a while now. Are they still advancing? How much more advanced do they need to be?
The Silumina pilot plant is still months away from being commissioned. Crickets on progress.
Grants hopefully but who knows when.
'Ongoing discussions suggest that equity and mezzanine financing are vital components for successful implementation'.Thanks for that Captain.
They are burning cash at an increasing rate now, so a CR can't be far away. I see a lot of dilution on the horizon.
Congratulations to all involved, the DFS looks great and I appreciate the amount of effort put into it, but that was the easy part.
Now the hard sell begins.
Iggy couldn't get finance over the line for Johor, but given the capex for both Cerenergy and Silumina are far less, and their markets better understood, I remain confident he can get it done this time.
Complete some of the above items that add tangible value to the projects, and the SP should move up.
Until then nothing has changed.
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