Why is everyone wetting their pants over the capex? Of course it...

Why is everyone wetting their pants over the capex? Of course it costs more to demand a cost guarantee from the contractor - they now add (1) costs to assure the final product quality [better equipment etc.] and (2) a premium to cover the risk that they're wrong and have to complete the build anyway. Who are we to decide how much more? On what basis other than the non-binding word of the previous contractor did we decide the old capex was anything close to reasonable?

Why then should we complain about the new number relative to our original uneducated guess on the accuracy of the original quote? We should complain (or not) relative to the new risk (to shareholders) and the new potential return such as they are.

IMO the multiples are still attractive and the risk to shareholders has gone down by a huge amount with the fixed contracts. The uncertainty is also lower even though in a "worse than expected" direction.

Whatever we were dreaming the capex was going to be, if we all calm down and ask at what price does the potential return adequately cover the risk...? Who know what the market will say on wednesday, but project go-ahead is looking more likely than ever, I for one am comfortable holding through any convulsions in the coming days ~~