Why am I buying more ATH at the moment?
First, remember that everyone has their own investment plan, and risk/reward tolerance, so views will be wide on this topic. This is fine and its normal. This is just how I see the ATH play myself, while others must apply their own filters. Below is just a simple ‘point by point’ justification as I see it. Please feel free to differ, but I won’t be responding to debate the points, because they are just my thoughts. Take them or leave them ... we will all know how it plays out before the end of the year I expect.
The whole ATH game will turn on how the FDA ‘responds’ to the data, ie. what guidance it gives ATH going forward.
I continue to buy, at these ridiculously low prices, because I believe ATH will likely get AA. I think perhaps an 85% chance. Only death and taxes sit at 100%. So, just my opinion. Others will differ of course. If it does in fact gain AA guidance then the SP will ‘explode’.
Why do I think they are likely to get AA guidance?
• the treatment is safe (actually very, very safe) [look at the data]
• treats a condition of serious ‘unmet need’ (nothingelse works)
• clinical results are excellent (both the FDA and clinicians will love this) Yes, for some,
the data will never be enough. Make up your own mind ... I have.
• evidence that it is the drug that is making the difference [company comment]
• there’s no word that the critical EOP2 meeting has be delayed which suggests ...
- the unpacking of data is proceeding as planned and is going well
- ATH would now have a good ‘handle’ on the why they saw differences between
the cohorts
• the ATH team has a huge amount of data to present to the FDA ...
- 434-201 results [positive]
- 434-202 interim results (soon final) [positive]
- supporting data from Bio-Muse study (not to mention the primate study)
• positive reception (therefore support) from top clinicians [at recent world conference]
• a growing MSA market (I believe we will see more MSA cases diagnosed now that
there is actually a treatment)
• a likely move to a Parkinsons trial (possibly even later this year) with massive market
( I can’t can’t calculate what this is worth but I recall pivalde posting something about
the numbers of PD cases doubling in the near future. This is MASSIVE.
• a possible Friedreich’s ataxia (FA) trial
• ATH now fully funded
• considerable ‘interest’ from large Pharma/s
• did I mention the ridiculous current SP?
Suggest you make your own list. I’m sure others can add to the above. I’ve weighed it up and made my decision ... so I will continue to buy. Do your own DD. There is so much ‘white noise’ on HC ... so pursue your own research, not just follow that of others (including me). Remember, free advice is often not worth the paper it is printed on. The science here sits at the ‘cutting edge’, so you may need to spend extra time getting a grasp on it. Do it ... its your money you are risking.
Finally, if in doubt, read the company announcements (and sometimes ‘between the lines’ ... there is so much there.
That’s enough from me, I will put myself back in my box ... or perhaps get back to work.
As always, just my personal opinion.
(20min delay)