1MC 3.33% 2.9¢ morella corporation limited

Ann: Altura Completes October Shipments of Lithium Concentrate, page-127

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  1. 808 Posts.
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    I've asked myself the same question re debt repayment. 5yr repayment profile with some cash sweep if they get their cash costs down, interest rate gets reduced and price holds at floor.
    Interest rate reduction via a refinance is difficult to argue in the current state of the market and refi must happen at any cost giving the debt matures next year. The trick is to refinance without a massive make whole which would allow another refi in a year's time should prices recover sufficiently.
    If you are holding the stock that must be the expectation. It's not hard to imagine prices recovering given the expected demand growth, long lead time to expand production by brine producers and get new hard rock operations running profitably. Lead time on both is a minimum 2years. The supply response from here on will be slower and demand is playing catch up.
    What is really comes down to is each person's view on whether demand growth will eventuate, how quickly and whether ajm survive until that happens.
    I wouldn't be as harsh as saying people are onboard titanic here, everyone is taking a different view on these risks and that's completely fine.
    It's easy enough to say I told you so after the fact.
 
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