1MC 0.00% 3.1¢ morella corporation limited

Ann: Altura Welcomes Ningbo Shanshan as a Major Shareholder, page-98

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  1. 3,740 Posts.
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    What a petty and naive post, you think any of these brokers can read the tea leaves that well for a plant only just hitting its straps?

    You make specific mention of costs at AJM running above prices yet you then post a Canaccord report that clearly indicates that the company will become profitable despite their projection of falling spodumene prices (positive EBITDA from 2020). What do they imagine is going to change from a plant operating near name plate now (per AJM's last announcement) to moving to 90% of nameplate (per their projection) next year, logically AJM is there or thereabouts now and on a clear path to solid profit even with falling prices.

    Canaccord complain that there was no production cost update in June when AJM only issued a brief update and gave clear guidance in the last quarterly, it's plain lazy to not offer up a guesstimate of the range, when clearly they've had to to offer a profit estimate for next year onwards and have come to some conclusion. This looks like a lazy hatchet job with obvious internal inconsistency, they state an EBITDA of $90 million for 2021 and PE 8.5 - doesn't that mean a valuation of $800 million ish AUD, even with their fanciful 650,000,000 share issue at 10 cents that makes for a valuation of 27 cents not 10 cents!?

    You certainly can't value a early stage producer just moving to smooth operation and fine tuning of recovery and output based on it's first few quarters of production, nor can you give a valuation based on there here and now when the market should be forward looking and the company will doubtless (indeed already is on track to) improve.


 
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