..and thats the benefit of the deal in that AWC shs can ride the...

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Timber7

1,869 Posts.

141

12/03/24

10:27

Post #: 72851182

Originally posted by curiouswon: ↑
To keep track of the implied value of my AWC shares under the proposed transaction, for varying USD prices of Alcoa shares and varying AUD/USD exchange rates, I have prepared the simple spreadsheet below, which I am happy to share.
Implied Value of Alumina (ASX: AWC) based on Alcoa (NYSE: AA) shareprice

Basis:

28/02/2024 Announcement:-

scrip consideration of 0.02854 shares of Alcoa common stock for each Alumina share.

0.02854

AWC Implied Value in AUD

AA shareprice (USD)=> 26.00 27.00 28.00 29.00 30.00 31.00 32.00 33.00 34.00 35.00 36.00
AUD/USD rate

0.62 1.197 1.243 1.289 1.335 1.381 1.427 1.473 1.519 1.565 1.611 1.657
0.63 1.178 1.223 1.268 1.314 1.359 1.404 1.450 1.495 1.540 1.586 1.631
0.64 1.159 1.204 1.249 1.293 1.338 1.382 1.427 1.472 1.516 1.561 1.605
0.65 1.142 1.186 1.229 1.273 1.317 1.361 1.405 1.449 1.493 1.537 1.581
0.66 1.124 1.168 1.211 1.254 1.297 1.341 1.384 1.427 1.470 1.513 1.557
0.67 1.108 1.150 1.193 1.235 1.278 1.321 1.363 1.406 1.448 1.491 1.533
0.68 1.091 1.133 1.175 1.217 1.259 1.301 1.343 1.385 1.427 1.469 1.511
0.69 1.075 1.117 1.158 1.200 1.241 1.282 1.324 1.365 1.406 1.448 1.489
0.70 1.060 1.101 1.142 1.182 1.223 1.264 1.305 1.345 1.386 1.427 1.468

eg AA sp of $30 and exchange rate of 0.67c implies AUD$1.278 for each AWC share.
Expand
..and thats the benefit of the deal in that AWC shs can ride the upswing in AA valuation. AA is now over $30 so the deal looks even better when comparing to the time at which the deal was proposed ($26).

Thats also why AWC is now at $1.26

AWC Price at posting: $1.26 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held

4 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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Implied Value of Alumina (ASX: AWC) based on Alcoa (NYSE: AA) shareprice
Basis:
28/02/2024 Announcement:-
scrip consideration of 0.02854 shares of Alcoa common stock for each Alumina share.
0.02854

AWC Implied Value in AUD
AA shareprice (USD)=>	26.00	27.00	28.00	29.00	30.00	31.00	32.00	33.00	34.00	35.00	36.00
AUD/USD rate
0.62	1.197	1.243	1.289	1.335	1.381	1.427	1.473	1.519	1.565	1.611	1.657
0.63	1.178	1.223	1.268	1.314	1.359	1.404	1.450	1.495	1.540	1.586	1.631
0.64	1.159	1.204	1.249	1.293	1.338	1.382	1.427	1.472	1.516	1.561	1.605
0.65	1.142	1.186	1.229	1.273	1.317	1.361	1.405	1.449	1.493	1.537	1.581
0.66	1.124	1.168	1.211	1.254	1.297	1.341	1.384	1.427	1.470	1.513	1.557
0.67	1.108	1.150	1.193	1.235	1.278	1.321	1.363	1.406	1.448	1.491	1.533
0.68	1.091	1.133	1.175	1.217	1.259	1.301	1.343	1.385	1.427	1.469	1.511
0.69	1.075	1.117	1.158	1.200	1.241	1.282	1.324	1.365	1.406	1.448	1.489
0.70	1.060	1.101	1.142	1.182	1.223	1.264	1.305	1.345	1.386	1.427	1.468

..and thats the benefit of the deal in that AWC shs can ride the...

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