Only 4 weeks ago on 9 March 2004, I posted a table giving the implied valued of AWC (based on the takeover plan) for a range of possible AUD/USD exchange rates (0.62 to 0.70) and for a range of possible Alcoa share prices in USD (USD$26 to USD$36).
As you will all be aware, the Alcoa sp has been on a bit of a run and last night finished at USD$37.18.
So I have supplemented my previous table to now show Implied Value of AWC for a range of possible Alcoa share prices in USD (USD$33 to USD$43).
Implied Value of Alumina (ASX: AWC) based on Alcoa (NYSE: AA) shareprice |
|
|
Basis: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
28/02/2024 Announcement:- |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
scrip consideration of 0.02854 shares of Alcoa common stock for each Alumina share. |
|
|
|
0.02854 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
AWC Implied Value in AUD |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
AA shareprice (USD)=> | 33.00 | 34.00 | 35.00 | 36.00 | 37.00 | 38.00 | 39.00 | 40.00 | 41.00 | 42.00 | 43.00 |
AUD/USD rate | | | | | | | | | | | |
0.62 | 1.519 | 1.565 | 1.611 | 1.657 | 1.703 | 1.749 | 1.795 | 1.841 | 1.887 | 1.933 | 1.979 |
0.63 | 1.495 | 1.540 | 1.586 | 1.631 | 1.676 | 1.721 | 1.767 | 1.812 | 1.857 | 1.903 | 1.948 |
0.64 | 1.472 | 1.516 | 1.561 | 1.605 | 1.650 | 1.695 | 1.739 | 1.784 | 1.828 | 1.873 | 1.918 |
0.65 | 1.449 | 1.493 | 1.537 | 1.581 | 1.625 | 1.668 | 1.712 | 1.756 | 1.800 | 1.844 | 1.888 |
0.66 | 1.427 | 1.470 | 1.513 | 1.557 | 1.600 | 1.643 | 1.686 | 1.730 | 1.773 | 1.816 | 1.859 |
0.67 | 1.406 | 1.448 | 1.491 | 1.533 | 1.576 | 1.619 | 1.661 | 1.704 | 1.746 | 1.789 | 1.832 |
0.68 | 1.385 | 1.427 | 1.469 | 1.511 | 1.553 | 1.595 | 1.637 | 1.679 | 1.721 | 1.763 | 1.805 |
0.69 | 1.365 | 1.406 | 1.448 | 1.489 | 1.530 | 1.572 | 1.613 | 1.654 | 1.696 | 1.737 | 1.779 |
0.70 | 1.345 | 1.386 | 1.427 | 1.468 | 1.509 | 1.549 | 1.590 | 1.631 | 1.672 | 1.712 | 1.753 |
So at last Alcoa sp of USD$37.18 and todays exchange rate of 0.6566, the Implied Value of AWC is a about AUD$1.61.
Where to from here I wonder?!