This company is simply not investable.
The original mobile business is experiencing slow death due to a combination of:
- Intense competition from MNOs and other MVNOs
- Resulting in decreasing ARPU & subscriber numbers
- Which then caused EBITDA margin to compress significantly
The remaining hope of Energy business is also struggling:
- Growth in energy subscribers number is due to expensive customer acquisition program
- Energy ARPU is also decreasing (down 10%)
- Expectation is for margin to continue to slide down due to regulatory changes
- No guarantee that the new energy subscription plans will resonate with customers and be accepted by the market. If this doesn't work out as hoped, there is a chance of this causing further pains in the future
Board & Management who knows how to pay themselves well:
- In FY2019, when business was not exactly flying and shareholders were asked for more money from capital raising and no dividend was declared, AYS decided to pay a grand total of $1,942,500 in CASH bonus to a group of executives. Some of them were only appointed to become KMP during the year, and yet, already managed to score big fat cash bonuses. Refer to page 54 in the Annual Report for more details.
The hurdles set for STI is simply too easy to achieve:
- 30% for Underlying EBITDA above $46m
As if using EBITDA is not bad enough, AYS uses an even more flexible underlying EBITDA for the hurdle. The executives can classify whatever items that are not flattering as one-off and exclude them from their "underlying EBITDA" figures. There is also no accounting for the increased number of shares.
- 5% for NPS score of at least +10
- 15% for just launching subscription energy plans in VIC. It's part of their job to launch new plans/subscriptions, I don't think they deserve to be pat in the back for just doing their normal jobs.
- 50% for successful refinancing/debt restructure and capital raise. This is the worst of all of them. The company's financial position is in just a bad shape that the company requires to restructure their debt with their bankers and ask for more money from the shareholders and as a "reward" for getting the company in this situation, AYS will reward them 50% of the STI. Unbelievable!
AYS shareholders need to expect to be asked to fork out more money in capital raising in 18-24 months time, and the issue price at that time will be even lower than the current share price of around $0.60, which means the dilution factor will be even bigger.
This company is simply not investable.The original mobile...
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