I agree Dalque that buying AJQ at the moment does require a grown pair.
But this applies to all share purchases pending say a takeover, a pending JORC upgrade or a
corporate value adding arrangement like the AEP deal.
Due diligence should be complete by 11/1/16 and the deal finalized by 11/3/16 going by the timetable.
Smaller players who tend to make markets in the short term will be nervous about the deal failing as that
would probably lead to an immediate drop below 0.12. This would be the classical time for Westside to attack the panicked herd and get say a 10-20% stake. They may only have to go to 0.20-.0.25 to get to 51%.
Currrently Westside are circling DGR. I believe Sandon and MVT are also circling.
Westside's goal must be to get DGRs 25% stake in AJQ.
Currently buying DGR below 0.10 requires a smaller pair than buying AJQ as the withdrawal of AEP would see Westside attack at 0.12 with a strong chance of having to increase their bid. Thus DGRs NTA would remain at least 0.10 if no other seismic events occur.
Orions valuation of 0.67 is a baseline valuation if the AEP deal is executed.
The intrinsic value of AJQ is much greater once AEP starts drilling and pipelines are constructed.
The Northern territory is a super nova hydrocarbon province :
Total NT reserves could be over 500TCF gas equivalent. I estimate AJQ and AEP will eventually control 50-100TCF.
The AJQ/AEP JV will be worth billions.
Its in a politically stable country.
Low human population.
Geographically sparse.
Great management team.
AJQ could well be a 20bagger from 0.12.
Sometimes outsiders like Chinese or Americans or a humble Kiwi investor like me can see things more clearly from a distance than those in the Lucky Countries fish tank.
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