Ide say the 'something attractive' is going to be a gradual uptick in price in the 2nd half of this year and 2026. Based on historical cycles and the fact prices have bottomed out, mine closures are happening, and demand is slowly catching up again.
2015/26 - chemicals were around 5k per tonne. By 17' prices hit around 20k and the a downward cycle hit in 2018/19. Prices stabilised during covid in 2020 at about 7k.
By 2021/22 the price boooomed to around 70k then as we all know too well, sunk to around 10k again in 23/24. prices have now stabilised around at the 8-10k mark.
The point of all this is that theres' a clear 2-3 year boom/bust cycle followed by a stabilising year and the boom again. So based on previous data available, the boom is set to start again in 26/27... How many new projects are going to be fully ramped up by then that are above 250kt sc6? definitely not Patriot...
SYA Price at posting:
1.9¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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