I guess everybody has to calculate their own odds as to what...

I guess everybody has to calculate their own odds as to what proportion of expected business value will remain after all of the known unknowns that AMP is facing. A PE of 16x is obviously too high when there is a (nobody knows what) percentage chance of a major financial impact coming soon. I wanted to try to be conservative on the upside, as I had a negative view of the stock, but did not want to later regret adding to any irrational market fears - not that I feel very influential.

I have been able to satisfy myself (possibly nobody else though - lol) as to a set of baseline financial metrics (after two silly initial errors - I was very distracted I admit). Applying the odds to those metrics is very difficult, even though in hindsight we will wonder what was so difficult about it.