I think you need to analyse possible outcomes to make a judgement. There are only 2 scenarios:
1. Plant doesn't work and revenues/profits are non-existent. If this is the case, the stock pretty much goes to zero.
2. Plant works and generates revenues/profits. People then realise there is strong potential. They then analyse the figures. Someone did a calc previously of the pipeline of projects. If company stated production and margins are correct, IGE share of profits from known plants is something like $700m per annum (I think, could be a different figures - go back and search HC posts). If there are additional plants then profits are higher again. If this is the case, the market cap definitely trends well above $1B in my opinion. The question is just how long it takes.
Given they have a project debt facility available of almost $100m I suspect the DD that went into that indicates the plant should work. So I am very positive. But we need to see the revenues and profits. So I think the big gains come 6 months after plant goes live and we have 2 quarters of cashflow reports.
In my personal opinion (not investment advice), scenario 2 is more likely than scenario 1. (Or I sure hope so). If this is the case then you potentially see stock price way higher over next 12-24 months as plants are rolled out and new ones announced.
This has drifted down due to uncontrolled, stupid selling and boredom.
cheers
Marv
- Forums
- ASX - By Stock
- IGE
- Ann: Amsterdam Plant Update
Ann: Amsterdam Plant Update, page-13
-
-
- There are more pages in this discussion • 2 more messages in this thread...
You’re viewing a single post only. To view the entire thread just sign in or Join Now (FREE)