Note I only commented that the timeline will take longer and not the amount of potential, though I think one should err on the side of caution. From your chart, I see 900tpd of potential currently that is of a higher certainty. 315M L (241.5 ish after JV share %) on their proposed $0.30 EBITDA = $72.45m and we don't know what maintenance capex will be.
The Amsterdam plant took over a year+ to get set up for 100tpd and was given budget around $24m (if I remember correctly). Holding the capex constant - another 800tpd plant may cost 8x24 = $192m. Question is how long will it take for that to come up and running and also how are they going to fund that $192m capex and the $12.5m injection to the China JV. 7/7/7 sounds good but how realistically doable is it without some sort of CR and dilution?
Also, will the $0.30/L EBITDA really play out or would it be less due to unforeseen costs for running the plant. There's just quite a lot of unknowns and I'm guessing people (myself included) are just waiting to see what the Amsterdam plant will turn out to be like, so there are more certainty rather than just management estimates, before investing. Time is money so it's important to know when that cash flow will be coming in, whether it really is 7/7/7 or much later.
Good luck to all
IGE Price at posting:
22.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
