TON 9.09% 1.0¢ triton minerals ltd

Ann: Ancuabe Mining Concession Granted, page-167

  1. 27,270 Posts.
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    "There is no argument to hold ton at the moment. Your better off waiting on the sidelines until finance and contruction occur."

    Well i'll put up a solid argument for mine.

    1. The come finance is a speculative Bet. And the base line accumulation is apparent around 4-4.5c
    So if you take a view that the probability of TONs combination of up to 85% EPC finance, will limit the remaining finance required, such that the odds rise imo with trying to raise a smaller amount else where then.

    Sure, if you're trying to raise hundreds of millions its a tough ask. But if you already have a huge chunk of financing capex which under 100m by the way, then whats left ?

    2. Financiers will want a jurisdiction without greens parading and supported regionally by others in the sector. SYRAH

    3. Capital investors will want a project with long life, and organic growth, AKA Nicanda West could be Ancuabe 2.0 (you get two for the price of 1, if cash flows develop your second long life asset)

    4. Nicanda Hill has incredible value, and sale or JV.

    Now these financing and JV catalysts are up in the air. And my argument is the probability of success is favorable imo, to hold in the accumulation zone, than having to pay entry post these occurring.

    Good luck getting a cheap entry, if Nicanda Hill gets sold for $$$, or we get a free ride with a major Chinese developer etc.
    The market is all about confidence of delivering a cash cow. And when it sorts the wheat from the chaff with clarity, too bad for those sitting on the sidelines.

    Now i do understand your argument, that rather than figuring on the probability of financing success, you just wait until it occurs, and pay the premium for it. Thats fair enough, if you want to back the locked in on finance, and ride the gains post that as the market funnels money flow into the surety of cash cow in the development.

    But taking a speculative position before that occurs, is a bet on what we think are odds in our favor.
    Few other graphite developers looking at finance, have both pending EPC finance contributing, and a major asset like nicanda hill as cards in the deck to play.

    At half the MC of where we were at DFS, value apparent imo.

 
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