all imo - things behind the curtain.some think its the market...

all imo - things behind the curtain.

some think its the market ?
what is the market ? thats where buyers and sellers equally exchange opposing views on the forward path, end game stuff. but there are a lot of detours within that path that are obscured to the end game . A mountain in the distance, but the road there never in a straight line.

You could take a view that it will mine, and that it should be de-risked by mining licence, hence worth more on market today than it was last week. In a perfect world, mark to market fair pricing would reward those gains.

And certainly makes sense in the long term. But why sell into news ? Well, SOME sellers took a gamble that there were going to be more sellers to drive the price back down, as buyers were not going to set the price. Because they did not have the volumes to overtake the seller POV.

But just like BAT, unless you have good finance, its still a bet, on what EPS is protected re dilution.
Although we have the Nicanda hill advantage whatever our Ancaube finance terms end to be.

But what is that seller POV ? who sells with a mining licence granted, now pending finance ?
How about all the insiders who might be book building for a placement, at a 15-20% typical discount, and cashing in their script at a premium ?
Or perhaps as most of us see the major catalyst being the finance in place, as the green light to bigger wallets to position ? So sellers would have taken a view that the big money was not going to enter, YET. Hence they would win the battle.

Thats like that last fight william wallance had, when he attacked the king of England, and expected the lords on horses to follow his well intentioned foot soldiers in, but the horses didnt engage. the cavalry didnt come. it wasnt time for them to charge. But, in a later battle, they eventually did. That is the time when the sellers would have true fear of dropping their bundle too early.

You only sell if you think its a dud, or you think the cavalry in not coming, and the price will pull back to its support until that cavalry is coming. When that cavalry does come, where there will not be the opportunity to rebuy at a lower base.

Enter nicanda hill sale. Inject XXX cash. ? the type of event that dispels doubts.

The end game of all punters is whether this is the real deal, or stuck on paper.
A green light for the cavalry or a false start.
Cash in hand to build a mine on good terms dilution wise, and or with secondly JV to build Nicanda Hill.

Things never go up in a straight line, but as long as the foundations are good, so we can attract the conservative money when the big catalysts are too tall for sellers to cope with.